26th December 2024

Race Analysis 

230 Kempton 3miles Chase

This years King George is a fascinating race, with several with chances and one or two with doubts.

Spillane Tower is improving and with a record of 2w-1p-3r in grade 1`s then its a fair fav.Only raced once over this trip but I doubt it will be a problem.Banbridge has its stamina to prove but finished well around here last year over shorter,so it may well get it but im not keen on finding out against proven stayers.

Bravemansgame loves it here(2w-1p-3) but its recent ratings suggest, it isn`t good enough anymore while Grey Dawning has the ratings but had a hard race on its reappearance and that worries me.

Il Est Francais won doing handsprings over CD last year and on that run,would definitely have chances but its not got close to that run in its two efforts this year,so looks tight on the current prices.Envoi Allen isnt far off the top rated horses and I`m a little surprised its double figures in the market.

The value is L`Homme Presse ,who runs best fresh (120days+ 4w-0p-4r) ,its first time out rating from last season puts it bang there and the trainer knows how to win this race.

(Great race and fair enough result)

135 Wetherby 3miles Chase

Cruz Control heads the market here ,for a yard that does very well here(42% Strike rate), its had a pipe opener over hurdles so was clearly lined up for this and its best rating from last year, gives it every chance but its around the right price.

One for me that isn`t is Young Buster, its possible it ran over a trip just a bit too far first time out this season but still posted  a solid figure, it just tops my ratings on a run over CD last season so anything over 9.0 would be great value.

Some Scope is respected and has a good claimer taking over but is around the right price while Tahmuras is a bit shorter than id have it as I think it probably wants softer ground.

Good Boy Bobby won this in the past and has a fine record here(4w-0p-5r) so should run well while Sire Nominee has been plying its trade in hunter chases but on whats its done ,its a slightly bigger price than I think it should be.

(Some Scope was well backed and proved correct)

128 Wincanton 2miles4f Chase

If you could be assured that Another Day Out would A) Definitely start and B)Handle the drop in trip then it would be a good thing here but I still think from a pure ratings standpoint, its a bigger price than it should be.Take out the refusal to race and its figures show its improving with each run over fences and could dominate this if its get out in front and in a rhythm, obviously always best to wait to see if it actually jumps off first.

Mighty Moth is difficult to assess after falling on its chase debut but its needs to improve on its hurdles ratings to hold any chance here.Endless Escape has a class edge based on its hurdles runs(Class 4 3w-1p-4r) but its 3 chase runs last season leave it with 10Ibs to find and it looks a very short price to me.

Sainte Doctor is another that looks overpriced to me although with the caveat that the money probably needs to come for it be really competitive, its not done much in 2 runs this season but on its best efforts from last season,it holds every chance.

(Couldnt see much due to fog but the days good thing started and won!)

147 Market Rasen 3m4f Chase

My first view of this race was Kelce was a good thing but after more thorough analysis ,its price is about right. Its ratings show its improving after just 3 efforts over fences but its up 2 grades and its speed figures so far,show it will need to improve again but that is possible.

The overpriced one at the front of the market is Ballydisco, whos having only its 3rd run for this yard and has the figures plus stamina to go close,ive got it around the 11/4 mark.

O`Connell looks sure to go well and went close in this race last year but is about the right price while Senor Lombardy isnt out of it either.

Inis Orr pulled up when favourite last time and that has to be a worry,it does stay well but has struggled to be competitive off marks like this in the past (Hcp Rating 121+ 0wp-0p-8r)

(Another race where the result makes sense)

Back Selections from 2 systems

26/12/2024 12:30 AINTREE Imperial Saint -WON(BSP 4.15)

26/12/2024 12:30 AINTREE Westerninthepark -3rd

26/12/2024 12:45 KEMPTON Asta La Pasta -2nd

26/12/2024 13:00 WETHERBY Jazz King -2nd

26/12/2024 14:00 SEDGEFIELD Yealand -2nd

26/12/2024 14:03 WINCANTON Vision De Maine -4th

26/12/2024 14:10 WETHERBY Glory And Honour -2nd

26/12/2024 14:10 WETHERBY Grain d'Oudairies -fell

26/12/2024 15:35 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Overnight Oats -UP

26/12/2024 16:05 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Haku -UP

Sharp Track System(All Backs)(Must be fav at the off)

KEMPTON 

1245 Asta La Pasta -2nd

120 The Jukebox Man -WON

155 Lossiemouth -(Didnt Qualify)

SEDGEFIELD

1220 Blackwater Lily-(Didnt Qualify)

1250 I`m Too Tired -WON(BSP 2.4)

WOLVES

435 Hat Toss -(Didnt Qualify)