20th December 2024

Race Analysis

130 Uttoxeter 2m4f chase

The majority of the prices about right here,by far the most likely winner is Flash in the Park who has only had 2 runs over fences and just 5 runs in total,so this is horse is obviously improving and unexposed.It tops my figures with a + and anything above 4.0 is value.

Theres several who are fairly unexposed over fences who could improve .Of those Taras Halls looks a little short to me currently but not as short as Heros De Romay  who looks pretty poor value to me at the morning prices.

Seefin makes its chase debut so who knows but the stable jockey has gone to Ascot.Knockamore represents a little value for jockey/trainer that have a 33% strike rate together but of the bigger prices,Clonakilly is probably the most out of line with my prices.It pulled up last time out on really heavy ground,if you forgive that then its best runs would see it coming home second here.

(Flash in the Park jumped great until the last but the jock just let it drift back bizarrely? I flagged the winner up as a little bit of value)

142 Southwell 12f

Kitty Furnival is the right fav but also the right price,it just heads my ratings for a yard that have a 36% strike rate(A/E 1.73) for the last 30 days.

Its main rival is the unexposed Sectarius,this has only had 7 runs and could find more.

Easily the worst value in the race for me is No Surrender,whos best runs at 10f still leave it short of the main two in the market but its 2 efforts at this trip have seen it run 10Ibs below its mark...you could lay it now or try and get it later in the race as its stamina begins to wane.

Dunstan is 2/2 here and 4w-2p-6r on tapeta overall but returns after 138 days off,if its ready then its a big price but this trainer has no record of getting one ready first time out.

I cant have Woodstock City either,its 0w-1p-6r in this grade,has stamina to prove and the trainer is operating at a 2% strike rate (A/E 0.31) for the last 30 days.

(Hopefully some got on the lay of No Surrender,never in it)

Back Selections from 2 systems

20/12/2024 11:30 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Fitz Perfectly -UP

20/12/2024 13:30 UTTOXETER Flash In The Park -Fell

20/12/2024 13:55 ASCOT Here Comes Georgie -WON(BSP 13.9)

20/12/2024 19:30 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Equion

Sharp Track System(Must be fav to qualify)

1232 Southwell Ziggys Missile -Didnt Qualify

700 Wolves Paramount

£2.5m LAY system(must be priced 5.5+)

20/12/2024 14:30 ASCOT Golden Move -BEATEN