16th December

NEW ANALYSIS FEATURE(I will analyse 2 or 3 races each day..time permitting)

1222 Southwell 2m4f Chase

No Risk Des Flos hails from a yard going well and has the right man on board but it looks far too short to me here, its not top rated on my ratings and is 0w-1p-6r in a tongue tie...i can see it getting outpaced at some point around here and id be amazed if it didnt trade bigger in the run.

Bad has only had 2 runs over fences,so it could improve but it didnt from its first run and on my figures,it needs to find more.

Eaton Colina ran a nice race on its reappearance as its has no great recrd fresh,on its best runs from last year then id would have it bang there with the slight note that its never won before February in its career.

William Cody is up in class and has a lot to find with Eaton Colina on a run last year,its also 0 from 2 at the track and 0 from 12 going left handed but on its last rating(on a right handed track) ,its not far away but the market has got it price about right.

The value plays are Real Stone,who has won after a break before and represents a stable that has a 34% strike rate with his handicap chasers here,its inconsistent but that is more than built into the price.

Margarets Legacy has its first run for Warren Greatrex,whos horses are 21% in the last 30 days...its best ratings from last season put it right there.

(No Risk Des Flos hit everything before falling-Real Stone halved in price in the run but Margarets Legacy backed from 7.8 into 3.7 hosed up)

1410 Plumpton 3m1f Chase

A race probably at the mercy of Lady Balko,whos ratings massively improved last time out on its second run over fences,its obviously the one to beat.

Northern Poet is 2w-2p-5r at this track and 3w-1p-5r in fields of 7 or less...it returns from a break but has won twice before fresh,so its defintely got a shout but doesnt have the upside of the fav.

Saddlers Bay is 0 from 12 and up in class,from a ratings standpoint it has a chance but 3/1 looks tight to me while Village Master ran a shocker on its reappearance,ive got it needing to improve.

At the prices,Northern Poet is very weak but is great value.Village Master is more an 8/1 shot for me while Saddlers Bay has been strong in the market but is too short now.Lady Balko about right.

(Cannot complain..Northern Poet ran great,we had the right winner and Village Master stuffed in running at prices of 4.0)


Only one selection from 2 backing systems today 

16/12/2024 13:10 PLUMPTON Alien Storm -WON(BSP 4.13)


Sharp Track System(Must be fav to qualify)

SOUTHWELL

1152 (LAY) Mystimal -BEATEN

122 (BACK) French Symphony -3rd

222(BACK) Crazierthandaisy -2nd

322(BACK) Magical Arthur -Didnt qualify

PLUMPTON

310 (BACK) Shut that D`or -WON(BSP 2.2)

340(BACK) Mustang Betty -Didnt Qualify


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